Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tsann Kuen (China) Enterprise Co., Ltd. (200512.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.72 - $4.25$3.42
Multi-Stage$13.02 - $14.39$13.69
Blended Fair Value$8.56
Current Price$3.08
Upside177.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.51%3.29%0.270.130.110.150.100.040.080.120.100.16
YoY Growth--113.05%11.37%-23.43%50.32%155.74%-53.40%-31.56%21.50%-38.97%-16.33%
Dividend Yield--8.09%4.45%3.60%4.80%2.32%1.38%2.96%3.71%1.73%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.966.854.11
Cash Retained (M)13.7613.7613.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.96-6.85-4.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.806.919.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)190.49190.49190.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate4.51%4.51%4.51%
Growth Rate-3.65%-2.65%-1.65%
Fair Value$2.72$3.42$4.25
Upside / Downside-11.75%11.15%37.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.7953.3451.9350.5649.2247.9249.36
Payout Ratio74.88%77.91%80.93%83.95%86.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.0341.5642.0342.4542.8143.1345.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.51%4.51%4.51%
Growth Rate-3.65%-2.65%-1.65%
Year 1 PV (M)39.3639.7740.17
Year 2 PV (M)37.6938.4839.27
Year 3 PV (M)36.0537.1838.34
Year 4 PV (M)34.4335.8837.38
Year 5 PV (M)32.8534.5936.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,300.332,422.202,549.18
Equity Value (M)2,480.712,608.102,740.75
Shares Outstanding (M)190.49190.49190.49
Fair Value$13.02$13.69$14.39
Upside / Downside322.81%344.52%367.13%

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