Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SSY Group Limited (2005.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.32 - $135.87$43.24
Multi-Stage$14.01 - $15.31$14.65
Blended Fair Value$28.94
Current Price$2.78
Upside941.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.05%8.50%0.180.150.130.100.110.100.080.060.020.20
YoY Growth--19.89%14.79%28.26%-9.09%10.07%25.41%41.27%140.00%-87.76%146.03%
Dividend Yield--5.05%3.07%3.04%2.54%2.55%1.62%1.40%1.16%0.97%9.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,024.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,022.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,002.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)404.93253.08151.85
Cash Retained (M)1,002.281,002.281,002.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-404.93-253.08-151.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)597.35749.20850.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,963.592,963.592,963.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.32$43.24$135.87
Upside / Downside738.92%1,455.38%4,787.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,024.662,156.272,296.422,445.692,604.662,773.962,857.18
Payout Ratio50.50%58.40%66.30%74.20%82.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,022.391,259.201,522.481,814.672,138.412,496.572,642.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.97%7.97%7.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,155.271,166.221,177.17
Year 2 PV (M)1,281.541,305.951,330.59
Year 3 PV (M)1,401.421,441.651,482.64
Year 4 PV (M)1,515.141,573.401,633.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,622.911,701.301,782.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,551.7036,220.5637,953.29
Equity Value (M)41,527.9843,409.0945,359.72
Shares Outstanding (M)2,963.592,963.592,963.59
Fair Value$14.01$14.65$15.31
Upside / Downside404.06%426.89%450.56%

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