Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hello Group Inc. (1MO.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.29 - $30.97$26.64
Multi-Stage$53.83 - $59.39$56.55
Blended Fair Value$41.60
Current Price$59.06
Upside-29.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.97%0.00%3.314.423.883.945.194.050.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---25.23%13.92%-1.38%-24.13%28.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.14%9.49%6.13%9.93%5.34%2.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)854.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)346.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)508.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)170.88106.8064.08
Cash Retained (M)508.21508.21508.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-170.88-106.80-64.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)337.33401.41444.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.64216.64216.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.852.05
LTM Dividend per Share1.601.601.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.852.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.163.453.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate-5.97%-4.97%-3.97%
Fair Value$22.29$26.64$30.97
Upside / Downside-62.26%-54.90%-47.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)854.39811.89771.50733.12696.65661.99681.85
Payout Ratio40.52%50.41%60.31%70.21%80.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)346.18409.31465.30514.70558.04595.79630.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.34%7.34%7.34%
Growth Rate-5.97%-4.97%-3.97%
Year 1 PV (M)377.32381.34385.35
Year 2 PV (M)395.42403.87412.42
Year 3 PV (M)403.22416.23429.50
Year 4 PV (M)403.01420.43438.41
Year 5 PV (M)396.65418.20440.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,685.7110,211.8410,760.59
Equity Value (M)11,661.3412,251.9112,866.95
Shares Outstanding (M)216.64216.64216.64
Fair Value$53.83$56.55$59.39
Upside / Downside-8.86%-4.24%0.56%

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