Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Chunlai Education Group Co., Ltd. (1969.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.82 - $25.08$19.30
Multi-Stage$56.59 - $62.50$59.49
Blended Fair Value$39.39
Current Price$3.91
Upside907.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.140.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--469.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.32%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,537.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)285.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,252.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)307.59192.24115.35
Cash Retained (M)1,252.761,252.761,252.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-307.59-192.24-115.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)945.171,060.521,137.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,231.791,231.791,231.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.860.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.860.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.001.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate4.60%4.60%4.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.82$19.30$25.08
Upside / Downside279.08%393.59%541.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,537.961,522.581,507.351,492.281,477.351,462.581,506.46
Payout Ratio18.54%32.83%47.13%61.42%75.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)285.19499.94710.36916.521,118.491,316.321,393.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.60%4.60%4.60%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)473.10477.93482.76
Year 2 PV (M)636.15649.20662.38
Year 3 PV (M)776.72800.75825.26
Year 4 PV (M)897.01934.19972.51
Year 5 PV (M)999.021,051.041,105.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,927.4969,360.4872,935.02
Equity Value (M)69,709.4973,273.5976,983.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,231.791,231.791,231.79
Fair Value$56.59$59.49$62.50
Upside / Downside1,347.37%1,421.37%1,498.39%

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