Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Kepei Education Group Limited (1890.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.93 - $4.25$3.57
Multi-Stage$4.84 - $5.33$5.08
Blended Fair Value$4.32
Current Price$1.25
Upside245.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)801.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)670.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.32100.2060.12
Cash Retained (M)670.97670.97670.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.32-100.20-60.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)510.65570.77610.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,012.032,012.032,012.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.93$3.57$4.25
Upside / Downside134.20%185.53%240.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)801.58793.57785.63777.78770.00762.30785.17
Payout Ratio16.29%31.04%45.78%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.62246.29359.64470.69579.49686.07726.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)224.35226.64228.93
Year 2 PV (M)298.43304.55310.73
Year 3 PV (M)355.79366.79378.02
Year 4 PV (M)399.01415.55432.60
Year 5 PV (M)430.32452.73476.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,035.378,453.798,889.47
Equity Value (M)9,743.2710,220.0510,715.80
Shares Outstanding (M)2,012.032,012.032,012.03
Fair Value$4.84$5.08$5.33
Upside / Downside287.40%306.36%326.07%

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