Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China Isotope & Radiation Corporation (1763.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.31 - $68.15$50.08
Multi-Stage$45.65 - $50.03$47.80
Blended Fair Value$48.94
Current Price$13.54
Upside261.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.23%0.00%0.390.440.380.180.140.310.280.551.000.00
YoY Growth---12.53%16.62%109.60%29.80%-55.67%10.74%-49.02%-44.35%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.78%3.74%3.20%1.01%0.62%1.67%2.08%3.32%5.54%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)822.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)558.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)164.54102.8461.70
Cash Retained (M)558.43558.43558.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-164.54-102.84-61.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)393.89455.59496.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)319.87319.87319.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.231.421.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.231.421.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.252.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate2.23%3.23%4.23%
Fair Value$37.31$50.08$68.15
Upside / Downside175.52%269.89%403.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)822.71849.32876.79905.14934.42964.64993.58
Payout Ratio32.12%43.70%55.27%66.85%78.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.28371.14484.63605.08732.81868.17919.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate2.23%3.23%4.23%
Year 1 PV (M)340.72344.05347.39
Year 2 PV (M)408.45416.47424.58
Year 3 PV (M)468.16482.03496.18
Year 4 PV (M)520.51541.18562.46
Year 5 PV (M)566.12594.35623.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,298.4712,911.8413,549.44
Equity Value (M)14,602.4315,289.9316,003.74
Shares Outstanding (M)319.87319.87319.87
Fair Value$45.65$47.80$50.03
Upside / Downside237.15%253.03%269.51%

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