Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Intron Technology Holdings Limited (1760.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.35 - $76.99$72.15
Multi-Stage$48.43 - $53.15$50.75
Blended Fair Value$61.45
Current Price$1.32
Upside4,555.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.13%0.00%0.090.120.060.030.030.050.110.000.000.00
YoY Growth---24.66%104.30%119.97%-20.85%-27.74%-59.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.82%5.89%1.61%0.60%1.35%2.31%4.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)421.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)292.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.2652.6631.60
Cash Retained (M)292.58292.58292.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.26-52.66-31.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)208.31239.91260.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,088.241,088.241,088.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate0.54%0.54%0.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.35$72.15$76.99
Upside / Downside4,850.82%5,366.28%5,732.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)421.31448.70477.86508.92542.00577.24594.55
Payout Ratio30.56%42.44%54.33%66.22%78.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128.74190.45259.64337.02423.37519.51549.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.54%0.54%0.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)187.64189.42191.20
Year 2 PV (M)252.04256.84261.69
Year 3 PV (M)322.33331.59341.02
Year 4 PV (M)398.95414.29430.07
Year 5 PV (M)482.33505.62529.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,059.7153,525.9156,086.50
Equity Value (M)52,703.0055,223.6757,840.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,088.241,088.241,088.24
Fair Value$48.43$50.75$53.15
Upside / Downside3,568.89%3,744.37%3,926.52%

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