Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dongguang Chemical Limited (1702.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.55 - $7.15$5.74
Multi-Stage$5.29 - $5.79$5.54
Blended Fair Value$5.64
Current Price$1.55
Upside263.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.48%0.00%0.070.070.080.040.050.030.020.000.000.28
YoY Growth--2.64%-14.46%99.14%-23.10%59.50%101.05%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.91%3.81%3.59%2.06%3.22%1.59%0.69%0.00%0.00%20.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.2534.5320.72
Cash Retained (M)210.48210.48210.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.25-34.53-20.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)155.24175.95189.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)620.94620.94620.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate1.95%2.95%3.95%
Fair Value$4.55$5.74$7.15
Upside / Downside193.36%270.44%361.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276.23284.38292.78301.43310.33319.49329.08
Payout Ratio23.80%37.04%50.28%63.52%76.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.75105.34147.21191.47238.21287.54304.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate1.95%2.95%3.95%
Year 1 PV (M)94.8995.8296.75
Year 2 PV (M)119.46121.81124.19
Year 3 PV (M)139.96144.12148.36
Year 4 PV (M)156.86163.10169.53
Year 5 PV (M)170.56179.09187.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,604.642,734.912,870.34
Equity Value (M)3,286.383,438.863,597.14
Shares Outstanding (M)620.94620.94620.94
Fair Value$5.29$5.54$5.79
Upside / Downside241.45%257.30%273.74%

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