Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Wire & Cable Co., Ltd. (1603.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.80 - $322.84$160.36
Multi-Stage$65.27 - $71.28$68.22
Blended Fair Value$114.29
Current Price$39.90
Upside186.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.06%0.00%1.300.500.500.500.500.501.000.500.710.00
YoY Growth--160.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-50.00%100.00%-30.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.78%1.16%1.83%1.70%1.87%1.79%4.53%1.88%2.76%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)583.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)238.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)344.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.6172.8843.73
Cash Retained (M)344.77344.77344.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.61-72.88-43.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)228.16271.89301.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)159.23159.23159.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.431.711.89
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.431.711.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.933.203.39
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.80$160.36$322.84
Upside / Downside147.63%301.90%709.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)583.03620.93661.29704.28750.05798.81822.77
Payout Ratio40.87%50.69%60.52%70.35%80.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)238.27314.77400.22495.44601.34718.93761.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)287.05289.77292.49
Year 2 PV (M)332.83339.17345.56
Year 3 PV (M)375.73386.51397.50
Year 4 PV (M)415.88431.88448.33
Year 5 PV (M)453.41475.31498.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,528.898,940.849,368.55
Equity Value (M)10,393.7910,863.4811,350.49
Shares Outstanding (M)159.23159.23159.23
Fair Value$65.27$68.22$71.28
Upside / Downside63.60%70.99%78.65%

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