Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Gordon Auto Body Parts Co., Ltd. (1524.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.86 - $64.38$47.82
Multi-Stage$42.83 - $46.75$44.75
Blended Fair Value$46.28
Current Price$27.85
Upside66.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.06%0.00%1.291.000.300.210.430.540.490.540.000.00
YoY Growth--30.00%233.33%42.86%-51.70%-20.00%11.11%-10.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.21%2.69%1.15%1.95%3.69%5.75%4.21%4.74%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)421.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)380.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.3552.7231.63
Cash Retained (M)41.5441.5441.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.35-52.72-31.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-42.81-11.189.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)165.96165.96165.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.26-0.070.06
LTM Dividend per Share2.292.292.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.26-0.070.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.032.222.35
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate2.73%3.73%4.73%
Fair Value$35.86$47.82$64.38
Upside / Downside28.77%71.69%131.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)421.76437.48453.79470.70488.24506.44521.64
Payout Ratio90.15%90.12%90.09%90.06%90.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)380.21394.26408.81423.91439.57455.80482.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate2.73%3.73%4.73%
Year 1 PV (M)359.70363.20366.70
Year 2 PV (M)340.28346.94353.66
Year 3 PV (M)321.92331.41341.09
Year 4 PV (M)304.55316.58328.97
Year 5 PV (M)288.11302.41317.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,494.135,766.806,050.19
Equity Value (M)7,108.697,427.347,757.88
Shares Outstanding (M)165.96165.96165.96
Fair Value$42.83$44.75$46.75
Upside / Downside53.80%60.70%67.85%

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