Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation (1508.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - ReinsuranceSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.38 - $4.84$4.09
Multi-Stage$4.67 - $5.12$4.89
Blended Fair Value$4.49
Current Price$1.11
Upside304.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.28%15.11%0.040.010.040.040.040.030.050.050.130.02
YoY Growth--200.00%-68.89%9.76%-6.43%41.49%-35.76%0.65%-61.98%634.83%66.67%
Dividend Yield--5.14%3.43%10.30%6.71%6.51%2.72%3.44%3.26%7.63%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,441.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,378.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,062.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,088.302,555.191,533.11
Cash Retained (M)18,062.6418,062.6418,062.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,088.30-2,555.19-1,533.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,974.3415,507.4516,529.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42,479.8142,479.8142,479.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.370.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate10.23%10.23%10.23%
Growth Rate-1.05%-0.05%0.95%
Fair Value$3.38$4.09$4.84
Upside / Downside204.10%268.64%335.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,441.5120,430.6620,419.8020,408.9620,398.1220,387.2920,998.91
Payout Ratio11.64%27.31%42.98%58.65%74.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,378.875,579.608,776.9411,970.8715,161.4118,348.5619,423.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.23%10.23%10.23%
Growth Rate-1.05%-0.05%0.95%
Year 1 PV (M)5,011.075,061.725,112.36
Year 2 PV (M)7,079.427,223.247,368.50
Year 3 PV (M)8,671.778,937.369,208.32
Year 4 PV (M)9,863.9110,268.7510,685.93
Year 5 PV (M)10,721.0911,273.9111,849.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)156,946.20165,038.97173,462.18
Equity Value (M)198,293.47207,803.95217,686.60
Shares Outstanding (M)42,479.8142,479.8142,479.81
Fair Value$4.67$4.89$5.12
Upside / Downside320.54%340.71%361.66%

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