Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xiamen Yan Palace Bird's Nest Indus (1497.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.62 - $142.46$60.01
Multi-Stage$16.05 - $17.53$16.78
Blended Fair Value$38.39
Current Price$5.75
Upside567.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS26.51%0.00%0.220.350.180.220.270.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---37.45%100.00%-20.00%-16.67%288.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.95%4.35%2.07%2.80%3.26%0.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.6640.4124.25
Cash Retained (M)123.06123.06123.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.66-40.41-24.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.4082.6598.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)451.35451.35451.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.62$60.01$142.46
Upside / Downside397.75%943.61%2,377.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.32344.34366.72390.55415.94442.98456.27
Payout Ratio61.94%67.55%73.16%78.78%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.26232.60268.30307.66351.00398.68422.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)214.12216.15218.17
Year 2 PV (M)227.35231.68236.06
Year 3 PV (M)239.99246.88253.90
Year 4 PV (M)252.04261.73271.70
Year 5 PV (M)263.53276.26289.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,048.296,340.436,643.74
Equity Value (M)7,245.327,573.137,913.05
Shares Outstanding (M)451.35451.35451.35
Fair Value$16.05$16.78$17.53
Upside / Downside179.17%191.80%204.90%

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