Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Q P Group Holdings Limited (1412.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.74 - $8.08$6.19
Multi-Stage$19.41 - $21.41$20.39
Blended Fair Value$13.29
Current Price$1.50
Upside786.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.130.140.140.110.020.020.030.060.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-7.14%0.00%27.27%485.20%0.00%-33.33%-50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%10.48%10.29%11.38%12.09%1.71%1.71%0.00%5.13%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)209.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.8426.1515.69
Cash Retained (M)54.9454.9454.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.84-26.15-15.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0928.7839.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)532.00532.00532.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.74$6.19$8.08
Upside / Downside215.99%312.57%438.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)209.22207.12205.05203.00200.97198.96204.93
Payout Ratio73.74%76.99%80.25%83.50%86.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.28159.47164.54169.50174.34179.07189.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)151.06152.60154.14
Year 2 PV (M)147.64150.66153.72
Year 3 PV (M)144.06148.51153.06
Year 4 PV (M)140.35146.17152.16
Year 5 PV (M)136.55143.66151.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,606.7110,106.9510,627.82
Equity Value (M)10,326.3610,848.5511,391.97
Shares Outstanding (M)532.00532.00532.00
Fair Value$19.41$20.39$21.41
Upside / Downside1,194.03%1,259.47%1,327.56%

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