Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Xtep International Holdings Limited (1368.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.05 - $83.00$37.08
Multi-Stage$14.06 - $15.36$14.70
Blended Fair Value$25.89
Current Price$5.14
Upside403.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.03%17.50%0.530.170.200.130.100.160.170.100.120.12
YoY Growth--207.97%-14.83%54.41%27.71%-36.05%-4.98%69.59%-17.78%4.01%10.07%
Dividend Yield--10.05%4.33%2.65%1.24%3.16%4.35%4.55%3.94%4.16%3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,059.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)737.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,322.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)411.96257.47154.48
Cash Retained (M)1,322.031,322.031,322.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-411.96-257.47-154.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)910.071,064.561,167.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,709.162,709.162,709.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.670.70
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.05$37.08$83.00
Upside / Downside328.89%621.37%1,514.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,059.782,193.662,336.252,488.112,649.842,822.072,906.74
Payout Ratio35.82%46.65%57.49%68.33%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)737.751,023.421,343.121,700.042,097.702,539.872,688.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)935.16944.02952.89
Year 2 PV (M)1,121.431,142.791,164.36
Year 3 PV (M)1,297.031,334.271,372.20
Year 4 PV (M)1,462.391,518.631,576.48
Year 5 PV (M)1,617.941,696.091,777.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,654.4433,183.3634,770.80
Equity Value (M)38,088.4039,819.1641,613.95
Shares Outstanding (M)2,709.162,709.162,709.16
Fair Value$14.06$14.70$15.36
Upside / Downside173.52%185.95%198.84%

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