DDM Analysis: 1157.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.18 - $6.42	$5.22
Multi-Stage	$7.78 - $8.53	$8.15
Blended Fair Value	$6.69
Current Price	$5.32
Upside	25.69%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-0.46%	4.12%	0.39	0.38	0.42	0.45	0.30	0.40	0.31	0.31	0.31	0.23
YoY Growth	-	-	3.16%	-10.32%	-6.17%	51.01%	-25.46%	28.23%	2.51%	-0.82%	31.10%	-10.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.35%	7.80%	11.67%	11.17%	3.20%	7.79%	9.04%	12.71%	8.34%	9.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,997.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,581.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	415.80

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	799.42	499.64	299.78
Cash Retained (M)	415.80	415.80	415.80
(-) Cash Required (M)	-799.42	-499.64	-299.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-383.62	-83.84	116.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,745.87	8,745.87	8,745.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	-0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.41	0.41	0.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	-0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.37	0.40	0.42
WACC / Discount Rate	7.64%	7.64%	7.64%
Growth Rate	-1.02%	-0.02%	0.98%
Fair Value	$4.18	$5.22	$6.42
Upside / Downside	-21.39%	-1.80%	20.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,997.11	3,996.43	3,995.75	3,995.07	3,994.39	3,993.71	4,113.52
Payout Ratio	89.60%	89.68%	89.76%	89.84%	89.92%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,581.31	3,583.92	3,586.52	3,589.13	3,591.73	3,594.34	3,805.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.64%	7.64%	7.64%
Growth Rate	-1.02%	-0.02%	0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,296.35	3,329.65	3,362.95
Year 2 PV (M)	3,034.06	3,095.67	3,157.91
Year 3 PV (M)	2,792.64	2,878.13	2,965.36
Year 4 PV (M)	2,570.42	2,675.88	2,784.55
Year 5 PV (M)	2,365.89	2,487.84	2,614.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	54,018.92	56,803.31	59,701.35
Equity Value (M)	68,078.27	71,270.49	74,586.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,745.87	8,745.87	8,745.87
Fair Value	$7.78	$8.15	$8.53
Upside / Downside	46.32%	53.18%	60.31%

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Financial Statements

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Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (1157.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener