Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Dream International Limited (1126.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$159.29 - $452.93$424.46
Multi-Stage$63.45 - $69.40$66.37
Blended Fair Value$245.41
Current Price$9.76
Upside2,414.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.97%21.26%0.550.500.200.120.120.110.040.040.010.08
YoY Growth--10.00%150.00%66.67%0.00%9.09%175.00%0.00%299.99%-87.50%0.00%
Dividend Yield--11.04%12.82%7.19%4.29%4.27%3.00%0.92%1.23%0.47%5.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,541.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)778.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)763.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)308.30192.69115.61
Cash Retained (M)763.13763.13763.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-308.30-192.69-115.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)454.82570.44647.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)676.87676.87676.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.840.96
LTM Dividend per Share1.151.151.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.840.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.821.992.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$159.29$424.46$452.93
Upside / Downside1,532.04%4,248.96%4,540.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,541.521,641.721,748.431,862.081,983.122,112.022,175.38
Payout Ratio50.50%58.40%66.30%74.20%82.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)778.40958.701,159.161,381.631,628.121,900.822,012.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)890.01898.45906.88
Year 2 PV (M)999.001,018.031,037.24
Year 3 PV (M)1,105.411,137.151,169.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,209.291,255.801,303.63
Year 5 PV (M)1,310.681,373.981,439.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,431.8839,239.8641,117.03
Equity Value (M)42,946.2744,923.2646,973.97
Shares Outstanding (M)676.87676.87676.87
Fair Value$63.45$66.37$69.40
Upside / Downside550.09%580.02%611.06%

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