Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited (1066.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.65 - $23.38$17.06
Multi-Stage$14.29 - $15.64$14.96
Blended Fair Value$16.01
Current Price$5.57
Upside187.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.12%12.11%0.190.160.160.140.150.160.050.120.060.07
YoY Growth--18.83%-1.21%13.52%-6.85%-1.42%226.49%-61.48%124.00%-23.77%19.35%
Dividend Yield--4.44%2.40%1.44%1.81%1.04%2.70%0.84%2.30%1.19%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,879.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,603.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,275.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)775.82484.89290.93
Cash Retained (M)2,275.902,275.902,275.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-775.82-484.89-290.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,500.081,791.011,984.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,564.334,564.334,564.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.79
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Fair Value$12.65$17.06$23.38
Upside / Downside127.14%206.30%319.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,879.124,025.604,177.624,335.374,499.084,668.974,809.04
Payout Ratio41.33%51.06%60.80%70.53%80.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,603.222,055.622,539.893,057.813,611.224,202.074,448.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.30%8.30%8.30%
Growth Rate2.78%3.78%4.78%
Year 1 PV (M)1,879.801,898.091,916.38
Year 2 PV (M)2,123.992,165.532,207.46
Year 3 PV (M)2,338.392,407.312,477.58
Year 4 PV (M)2,525.392,625.122,727.78
Year 5 PV (M)2,687.242,820.542,959.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,680.2156,343.0359,110.50
Equity Value (M)65,235.0268,259.6371,398.78
Shares Outstanding (M)4,564.334,564.334,564.33
Fair Value$14.29$14.96$15.64
Upside / Downside156.60%168.49%180.84%

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