Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hengan International Group Company Limited (1044.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.49 - $54.23$44.95
Multi-Stage$92.39 - $101.74$96.97
Blended Fair Value$70.96
Current Price$20.57
Upside244.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.44%-1.29%1.391.421.422.362.552.292.272.161.921.81
YoY Growth---2.00%0.00%-39.87%-7.16%11.36%0.93%4.99%12.42%6.21%13.91%
Dividend Yield--6.61%5.52%3.88%7.23%5.51%4.61%4.53%3.05%3.77%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,246.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,205.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,040.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,049.24655.77393.46
Cash Retained (M)2,040.972,040.972,040.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,049.24-655.77-393.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)991.741,385.201,647.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,144.311,144.311,144.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.211.44
LTM Dividend per Share2.802.802.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.211.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.674.014.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-3.29%-2.29%-1.29%
Fair Value$36.49$44.95$54.23
Upside / Downside77.41%118.54%163.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,246.195,125.935,008.434,893.624,781.444,671.834,811.98
Payout Ratio61.10%66.88%72.66%78.44%84.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,205.223,428.063,639.013,838.484,026.894,204.654,451.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-3.29%-2.29%-1.29%
Year 1 PV (M)3,188.083,221.053,254.02
Year 2 PV (M)3,147.353,212.773,278.87
Year 3 PV (M)3,087.463,184.233,283.01
Year 4 PV (M)3,012.273,138.803,269.29
Year 5 PV (M)2,925.053,079.453,240.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,359.0495,128.42100,097.11
Equity Value (M)105,719.25110,964.73116,422.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,144.311,144.311,144.31
Fair Value$92.39$96.97$101.74
Upside / Downside349.14%371.42%394.61%

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