Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

VAT Group AG (0RFL.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$392.91 - $1,361.07$647.44
Multi-Stage$268.93 - $293.02$280.76
Blended Fair Value$464.10
Current Price$334.70
Upside38.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.34%0.00%6.246.255.504.504.004.004.004.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.01%13.63%22.21%12.52%0.02%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.48%2.17%0.99%1.81%2.44%4.86%2.77%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)423.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)374.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.7052.9331.76
Cash Retained (M)48.7048.7048.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.70-52.93-31.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)-36.00-4.2416.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0130.0130.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.20-0.140.56
LTM Dividend per Share12.4912.4912.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.20-0.140.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.2912.3513.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$392.91$647.44$1,361.07
Upside / Downside17.39%93.44%306.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)423.48451.00480.32511.54544.79580.20597.60
Payout Ratio88.50%88.80%89.10%89.40%89.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)374.78400.49427.96457.32488.68522.18552.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)365.55369.01372.48
Year 2 PV (M)356.54363.33370.19
Year 3 PV (M)347.75357.73367.90
Year 4 PV (M)339.17352.22365.63
Year 5 PV (M)330.80346.78363.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,331.626,637.446,954.96
Equity Value (M)8,071.438,426.518,794.53
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0130.0130.01
Fair Value$268.93$280.76$293.02
Upside / Downside-19.65%-16.12%-12.45%

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