DDM Analysis: 0QZA.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$202.90 - $738.78	$338.52
Multi-Stage	$134.71 - $147.15	$140.82
Blended Fair Value	$239.67
Current Price	$94.59
Upside	153.38%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.44%	0.34%	2.94	4.50	4.62	1.90	1.48	1.21	1.10	1.05	1.01	2.95
YoY Growth	-	-	-34.69%	-2.50%	142.73%	28.84%	22.07%	10.05%	4.44%	4.15%	-65.80%	3.94%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.80%	3.50%	4.65%	1.90%	2.79%	3.93%	1.62%	1.77%	2.03%	7.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,830.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,854.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,976.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,766.00	1,103.75	662.25
Cash Retained (M)	4,976.00	4,976.00	4,976.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,766.00	-1,103.75	-662.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,210.00	3,872.25	4,313.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,240.40	1,240.40	1,240.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.59	3.12	3.48
LTM Dividend per Share	3.11	3.11	3.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.59	3.12	3.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.69	6.23	6.58
WACC / Discount Rate	8.30%	8.30%	8.30%
Growth Rate	5.34%	6.34%	7.34%
Fair Value	$202.90	$338.52	$738.78
Upside / Downside	114.50%	257.88%	681.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,830.00	9,390.00	9,985.52	10,618.80	11,292.25	12,008.41	12,368.66
Payout Ratio	43.65%	52.92%	62.19%	71.46%	80.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,854.00	4,968.94	6,209.79	7,588.06	9,116.16	10,807.57	11,441.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.30%	8.30%	8.30%
Growth Rate	5.34%	6.34%	7.34%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,545.03	4,588.18	4,631.32
Year 2 PV (M)	5,195.45	5,294.56	5,394.61
Year 3 PV (M)	5,806.98	5,973.93	6,144.05
Year 4 PV (M)	6,381.23	6,627.01	6,879.82
Year 5 PV (M)	6,919.81	7,254.55	7,602.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)	138,246.82	144,934.40	151,878.31
Equity Value (M)	167,095.32	174,672.62	182,530.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,240.40	1,240.40	1,240.40
Fair Value	$134.71	$140.82	$147.15
Upside / Downside	42.42%	48.87%	55.57%

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ConocoPhillips (0QZA.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener