Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Georg Fischer AG (0QP4.IL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.92 - $80.63$65.90
Multi-Stage$93.35 - $102.51$97.84
Blended Fair Value$81.87
Current Price$64.85
Upside26.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.76%13.95%1.301.301.000.761.261.261.151.000.900.85
YoY Growth--0.00%30.49%32.26%-39.81%0.00%9.57%14.63%10.81%5.71%141.38%
Dividend Yield--1.90%2.13%1.77%1.09%2.20%2.55%3.05%1.55%2.16%2.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)486.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)218.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)268.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.2060.7536.45
Cash Retained (M)268.00268.00268.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.20-60.75-36.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)170.80207.25231.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)82.0382.0382.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.082.532.82
LTM Dividend per Share2.662.662.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.082.532.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.745.185.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Fair Value$52.92$65.90$80.63
Upside / Downside-18.40%1.62%24.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)486.00485.55485.11484.66484.22483.77498.28
Payout Ratio44.86%53.88%62.91%71.94%80.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)218.00261.64305.20348.68392.08435.39460.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Year 1 PV (M)240.35242.78245.21
Year 2 PV (M)257.55262.79268.08
Year 3 PV (M)270.30278.59287.04
Year 4 PV (M)279.22290.68302.50
Year 5 PV (M)284.84299.53314.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,324.826,651.086,990.67
Equity Value (M)7,657.098,025.458,408.32
Shares Outstanding (M)82.0382.0382.03
Fair Value$93.35$97.84$102.51
Upside / Downside43.95%50.87%58.07%

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