Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Schindler Holding AG (0QO1.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$109.05 - $162.84$134.62
Multi-Stage$164.49 - $179.63$171.92
Blended Fair Value$153.27
Current Price$295.00
Upside-48.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.63%8.18%4.953.963.973.963.963.953.944.932.663.27
YoY Growth--25.12%-0.23%0.23%0.00%0.23%0.23%-20.00%85.12%-18.59%44.90%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.88%2.28%1.61%1.66%1.60%2.09%2.20%1.48%1.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,409.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,181.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)228.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)281.80176.13105.68
Cash Retained (M)228.00228.00228.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-281.80-176.13-105.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)-53.8051.88122.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)108.61108.61108.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.500.481.13
LTM Dividend per Share10.8710.8710.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.500.481.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.3811.3512.00
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-0.03%0.97%1.97%
Fair Value$109.05$134.62$162.84
Upside / Downside-63.03%-54.37%-44.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,409.001,422.651,436.421,450.331,464.381,478.561,522.92
Payout Ratio83.82%85.05%86.29%87.53%88.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,181.001,210.031,239.501,269.441,299.841,330.701,408.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-0.03%0.97%1.97%
Year 1 PV (M)1,094.281,105.231,116.17
Year 2 PV (M)1,013.711,034.091,054.68
Year 3 PV (M)938.88967.34996.37
Year 4 PV (M)869.40904.72941.10
Year 5 PV (M)804.91845.98888.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,144.8313,815.5714,513.40
Equity Value (M)17,866.0218,672.9319,510.43
Shares Outstanding (M)108.61108.61108.61
Fair Value$164.49$171.92$179.63
Upside / Downside-44.24%-41.72%-39.11%

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