Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Forbo Holding AG (0QKD.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$911.27 - $1,328.61$1,113.04
Multi-Stage$1,837.04 - $2,021.05$1,927.23
Blended Fair Value$1,520.14
Current Price$824.00
Upside84.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.87%2.10%24.9823.1425.0522.2926.1223.9223.0023.0720.6521.51
YoY Growth--7.98%-7.65%12.42%-14.67%9.20%4.01%-0.31%11.68%-3.96%5.94%
Dividend Yield--3.31%2.20%2.30%1.19%1.72%1.45%1.68%1.53%1.57%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6821.6813.01
Cash Retained (M)102.90102.90102.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.68-21.68-13.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.2281.2389.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.4257.6563.80
LTM Dividend per Share50.0450.0450.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.4257.6563.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend98.46107.69113.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.60%7.60%7.60%
Growth Rate-2.89%-1.89%-0.89%
Fair Value$911.27$1,113.04$1,328.61
Upside / Downside10.59%35.08%61.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.40170.12166.91163.76160.66157.63162.36
Payout Ratio40.66%50.53%60.39%70.26%80.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.5085.96100.80115.06128.74141.87150.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.60%7.60%7.60%
Growth Rate-2.89%-1.89%-0.89%
Year 1 PV (M)79.0779.8880.70
Year 2 PV (M)85.3087.0688.85
Year 3 PV (M)89.5692.3595.21
Year 4 PV (M)92.1896.03100.01
Year 5 PV (M)93.4398.35103.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,148.792,261.722,379.36
Equity Value (M)2,588.322,715.402,847.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1.411.411.41
Fair Value$1,837.04$1,927.23$2,021.05
Upside / Downside122.94%133.89%145.27%

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