Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Northrop Grumman Corporation (0K92.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Capital GoodsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$907.55 - $4,987.22$1,650.39
Multi-Stage$718.71 - $787.48$752.45
Blended Fair Value$1,201.42
Current Price$609.32
Upside97.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.15%7.74%8.187.707.266.786.586.075.664.754.424.16
YoY Growth--6.27%6.08%7.02%3.15%8.30%7.19%19.16%7.66%6.14%7.10%
Dividend Yield--1.60%1.63%1.57%1.52%2.03%2.01%2.07%1.36%1.86%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,019.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,263.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,756.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)803.80502.38301.43
Cash Retained (M)2,756.002,756.002,756.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-803.80-502.38-301.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,952.202,253.632,454.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.93144.93144.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.4715.5516.94
LTM Dividend per Share8.718.718.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.4715.5516.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.1924.2725.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.70%6.70%6.70%
Growth Rate4.15%5.15%6.15%
Fair Value$907.55$1,650.39$4,987.22
Upside / Downside48.94%170.86%718.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,019.004,225.984,443.624,672.484,913.115,166.145,321.13
Payout Ratio31.43%43.14%54.86%66.57%78.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,263.001,823.112,437.573,110.483,846.244,649.534,922.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.70%6.70%6.70%
Growth Rate4.15%5.15%6.15%
Year 1 PV (M)1,692.451,708.701,724.95
Year 2 PV (M)2,100.682,141.212,182.13
Year 3 PV (M)2,488.472,560.842,634.60
Year 4 PV (M)2,856.552,967.853,082.37
Year 5 PV (M)3,205.653,362.533,525.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,814.5596,307.81100,975.29
Equity Value (M)104,158.35109,048.95114,124.84
Shares Outstanding (M)144.93144.93144.93
Fair Value$718.71$752.45$787.48
Upside / Downside17.95%23.49%29.24%

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