Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The Mosaic Company (0K3B.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.07 - $70.44$55.29
Multi-Stage$70.84 - $77.86$74.28
Blended Fair Value$64.78
Current Price$34.68
Upside86.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.14%-3.40%0.851.100.620.330.240.210.120.661.211.21
YoY Growth---23.01%77.85%90.65%36.81%12.80%74.55%-81.72%-45.31%0.10%0.58%
Dividend Yield--3.15%3.40%1.35%0.49%0.75%1.95%0.43%2.72%4.14%4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,229.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)277.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)952.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.84153.6592.19
Cash Retained (M)952.20952.20952.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.84-153.65-92.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)706.36798.55860.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)318.65318.65318.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.222.512.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.222.512.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.093.383.57
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$43.07$55.29$70.44
Upside / Downside24.19%59.42%103.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,229.201,242.441,255.821,269.351,283.031,296.851,335.75
Payout Ratio22.53%36.03%49.52%63.01%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)277.00447.63621.90799.87981.601,167.161,235.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)413.25417.37421.50
Year 2 PV (M)530.03540.68551.43
Year 3 PV (M)629.35648.41667.84
Year 4 PV (M)713.02741.95771.75
Year 5 PV (M)782.69822.58864.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,503.8820,497.9921,532.23
Equity Value (M)22,572.2223,668.9924,808.85
Shares Outstanding (M)318.65318.65318.65
Fair Value$70.84$74.28$77.86
Upside / Downside104.26%114.18%124.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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