Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. (0J2Z.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.19 - $163.98$88.39
Multi-Stage$39.26 - $42.80$41.00
Blended Fair Value$64.70
Current Price$30.70
Upside110.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.35%30.08%1.391.160.960.820.720.630.510.490.360.23
YoY Growth--20.33%20.87%16.46%13.66%15.58%21.72%4.04%37.90%56.63%127.86%
Dividend Yield--4.76%4.12%3.35%1.73%1.29%3.07%1.99%2.53%1.77%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)308.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)205.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.6838.5523.13
Cash Retained (M)102.68102.68102.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.68-38.55-23.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.0064.1379.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.11138.11138.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.460.58
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.460.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.791.952.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.19$88.39$163.98
Upside / Downside83.03%187.93%434.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)308.40328.45349.80372.53396.75422.54435.21
Payout Ratio66.70%71.36%76.02%80.68%85.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)205.72234.39265.93300.57338.59380.28402.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)213.31215.33217.35
Year 2 PV (M)220.23224.42228.66
Year 3 PV (M)226.52233.03239.65
Year 4 PV (M)232.22241.15250.34
Year 5 PV (M)237.35248.82260.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,292.134,499.444,714.69
Equity Value (M)5,421.775,662.195,911.41
Shares Outstanding (M)138.11138.11138.11
Fair Value$39.26$41.00$42.80
Upside / Downside27.87%33.54%39.42%

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