Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cincinnati Financial Corporation (0HYE.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$224.20 - $438.34$308.93
Multi-Stage$188.41 - $205.87$196.98
Blended Fair Value$252.96
Current Price$158.10
Upside60.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.66%5.83%3.112.882.692.512.382.262.132.541.942.32
YoY Growth--7.93%7.33%7.09%5.33%5.63%5.65%-16.00%30.72%-16.39%31.65%
Dividend Yield--2.11%2.36%2.40%1.85%2.31%2.99%2.47%3.42%2.69%3.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,122.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)517.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,605.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)424.40265.25159.15
Cash Retained (M)1,605.001,605.001,605.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-424.40-265.25-159.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,180.601,339.751,445.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.43157.43157.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.508.519.18
LTM Dividend per Share3.283.283.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.508.519.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.7811.7912.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Fair Value$224.20$308.93$438.34
Upside / Downside41.81%95.40%177.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,122.002,242.062,368.922,502.952,644.572,794.202,878.03
Payout Ratio24.36%37.49%50.62%63.75%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)517.00840.571,199.111,595.522,032.962,514.782,662.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.69%9.69%9.69%
Growth Rate4.66%5.66%6.66%
Year 1 PV (M)759.05766.30773.56
Year 2 PV (M)977.80996.571,015.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,174.871,208.871,243.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,351.791,404.201,458.12
Year 5 PV (M)1,510.001,583.531,659.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,887.1925,050.4126,258.51
Equity Value (M)29,660.7031,009.8932,409.13
Shares Outstanding (M)157.43157.43157.43
Fair Value$188.41$196.98$205.87
Upside / Downside19.17%24.59%30.22%

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