Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CPMC Holdings Limited (0906.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.70 - $171.60$152.63
Multi-Stage$21.88 - $23.93$22.89
Blended Fair Value$87.76
Current Price$6.46
Upside1,258.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS11.50%13.07%0.220.220.260.190.130.130.180.040.060.07
YoY Growth--2.33%-17.31%38.74%47.84%-0.70%-29.24%307.28%-23.94%-18.75%11.29%
Dividend Yield--3.60%5.76%7.32%6.25%4.17%3.87%3.54%1.30%1.45%2.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)960.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)383.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)576.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)192.15120.0972.05
Cash Retained (M)576.89576.89576.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-192.15-120.09-72.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)384.74456.79504.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,113.421,113.421,113.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.70$152.63$171.60
Upside / Downside638.35%2,262.67%2,556.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)960.731,023.181,089.691,160.521,235.951,316.291,355.78
Payout Ratio39.95%49.96%59.97%69.98%79.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)383.85511.21653.51812.15988.651,184.661,254.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)473.16477.65482.13
Year 2 PV (M)559.85570.51581.28
Year 3 PV (M)643.97662.46681.29
Year 4 PV (M)725.57753.48782.18
Year 5 PV (M)804.72843.59883.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,155.2622,177.0623,237.98
Equity Value (M)24,362.5325,484.7426,648.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,113.421,113.421,113.42
Fair Value$21.88$22.89$23.93
Upside / Downside238.71%254.31%270.50%

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