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Definitive Analysis

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VSTECS Holdings Limited (0856.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.78 - $119.66$61.97
Multi-Stage$26.15 - $28.55$27.33
Blended Fair Value$44.65
Current Price$7.77
Upside474.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.82%11.94%0.260.180.280.230.170.160.150.130.130.13
YoY Growth--49.71%-37.22%22.73%32.06%9.73%2.66%19.28%0.03%0.19%50.60%
Dividend Yield--5.07%4.00%6.23%3.13%2.72%3.94%4.05%2.78%4.73%6.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,082.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)983.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,098.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)416.48260.30156.18
Cash Retained (M)1,098.751,098.751,098.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-416.48-260.30-156.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)682.27838.45942.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,400.721,400.721,400.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.600.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.78$61.97$119.66
Upside / Downside399.12%697.60%1,439.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,082.402,217.762,361.912,515.442,678.942,853.072,938.66
Payout Ratio47.24%55.79%64.34%72.89%81.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)983.661,237.271,519.701,833.622,181.932,567.772,718.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.74%8.74%8.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,127.191,137.871,148.56
Year 2 PV (M)1,261.311,285.331,309.58
Year 3 PV (M)1,386.451,426.251,466.80
Year 4 PV (M)1,503.031,560.831,620.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,611.441,689.271,770.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,742.8731,179.4632,671.03
Equity Value (M)36,632.2838,279.0239,986.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,400.721,400.721,400.72
Fair Value$26.15$27.33$28.55
Upside / Downside236.58%251.71%267.40%

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