Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Carpenter Tan Holdings Limited (0837.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.30 - $282.49$215.96
Multi-Stage$67.36 - $73.99$70.61
Blended Fair Value$143.28
Current Price$5.34
Upside2,583.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.40%3.64%0.360.230.330.160.250.450.260.230.240.26
YoY Growth--58.23%-31.24%104.05%-35.14%-44.55%76.48%12.63%-5.41%-6.95%2.38%
Dividend Yield--6.63%5.09%10.91%5.70%6.88%8.82%6.31%5.57%7.01%7.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)360.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.0545.0327.02
Cash Retained (M)270.27270.27270.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.05-45.03-27.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)198.22225.24243.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)248.71248.71248.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.910.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.910.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Fair Value$74.30$215.96$282.49
Upside / Downside1,291.47%3,944.12%5,190.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)360.27376.17392.79410.13428.24447.15460.57
Payout Ratio24.98%37.98%50.99%63.99%77.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.00142.89200.27262.45329.73402.44426.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.03%5.03%5.03%
Growth Rate3.42%4.42%5.42%
Year 1 PV (M)134.74136.05137.35
Year 2 PV (M)178.10181.56185.05
Year 3 PV (M)220.08226.53233.10
Year 4 PV (M)260.74270.97281.50
Year 5 PV (M)300.10314.89330.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,660.0416,431.9717,234.04
Equity Value (M)16,753.8017,561.9618,401.30
Shares Outstanding (M)248.71248.71248.71
Fair Value$67.36$70.61$73.99
Upside / Downside1,161.46%1,222.30%1,285.50%

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