Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lee & Man Chemical Company Limited (0746.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$183.14 - $215.97$202.30
Multi-Stage$332.78 - $366.98$349.55
Blended Fair Value$275.92
Current Price$3.77
Upside7,218.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.23%7.18%0.280.220.700.420.220.330.430.140.100.15
YoY Growth--27.26%-68.57%64.71%88.89%-31.82%-23.26%207.14%40.00%-33.33%7.14%
Dividend Yield--7.48%7.34%10.74%5.37%6.45%9.48%7.94%2.45%4.10%6.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)941.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)334.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)607.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)188.33117.7170.62
Cash Retained (M)607.55607.55607.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-188.33-117.71-70.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)419.22489.85536.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)827.52827.52827.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate-19.21%-19.21%-19.21%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Fair Value$183.14$202.30$215.97
Upside / Downside4,757.88%5,266.13%5,628.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)941.65956.63971.85987.301,003.011,018.961,049.53
Payout Ratio35.48%46.38%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)334.10443.72556.75673.26793.34917.06970.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.21%-19.21%-19.21%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Year 1 PV (M)543.82549.23554.63
Year 2 PV (M)836.27852.98869.85
Year 3 PV (M)1,239.401,276.731,314.81
Year 4 PV (M)1,789.891,862.141,936.55
Year 5 PV (M)2,535.782,664.352,798.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)268,440.12282,051.27296,209.02
Equity Value (M)275,385.28289,256.69303,682.95
Shares Outstanding (M)827.52827.52827.52
Fair Value$332.78$349.55$366.98
Upside / Downside8,727.14%9,171.77%9,634.19%

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