DDM Analysis: 0688.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$34.55 - $53.29	$43.25
Multi-Stage	$83.84 - $92.38	$88.02
Blended Fair Value	$65.64
Current Price	$13.62
Upside	381.93%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.73%	4.97%	0.69	0.69	0.99	0.98	0.91	0.83	0.71	0.64	0.64	0.52
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.89%	-30.46%	1.37%	7.68%	9.93%	15.89%	10.97%	-0.06%	24.55%	22.67%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.52%	5.24%	4.83%	5.31%	5.40%	2.73%	2.66%	2.45%	3.14%	1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	41,170.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	15,821.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25,349.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8,234.12	5,146.32	3,087.79
Cash Retained (M)	25,349.22	25,349.22	25,349.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8,234.12	-5,146.32	-3,087.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17,115.10	20,202.89	22,261.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10,944.88	10,944.88	10,944.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.56	1.85	2.03
LTM Dividend per Share	1.45	1.45	1.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.56	1.85	2.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.01	3.29	3.48
WACC / Discount Rate	6.20%	6.20%	6.20%
Growth Rate	-2.31%	-1.31%	-0.31%
Fair Value	$34.55	$43.25	$53.29
Upside / Downside	153.64%	217.58%	291.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	41,170.58	40,629.63	40,095.79	39,568.96	39,049.06	38,535.99	39,692.07
Payout Ratio	38.43%	48.74%	59.06%	69.37%	79.69%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	15,821.36	19,804.12	23,679.48	27,449.59	31,116.54	34,682.39	36,715.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.20%	6.20%	6.20%
Growth Rate	-2.31%	-1.31%	-0.31%
Year 1 PV (M)	18,459.76	18,648.73	18,837.70
Year 2 PV (M)	20,573.74	20,997.11	21,424.80
Year 3 PV (M)	22,230.40	22,920.13	23,623.97
Year 4 PV (M)	23,489.47	24,466.18	25,473.03
Year 5 PV (M)	24,404.02	25,678.96	27,006.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	808,449.52	850,685.41	894,668.37
Equity Value (M)	917,606.91	963,396.52	1,011,034.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	10,944.88	10,944.88	10,944.88
Fair Value	$83.84	$88.02	$92.38
Upside / Downside	515.56%	546.27%	578.23%

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Financial Statements

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China Overseas Land & Investment Limited (0688.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener