Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Asia Financial Holdings Limited (0662.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.32 - $88.43$47.69
Multi-Stage$20.11 - $21.99$21.03
Blended Fair Value$34.36
Current Price$4.05
Upside748.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.44%2.46%0.110.080.120.110.060.090.100.100.040.09
YoY Growth--39.25%-37.86%8.71%80.30%-30.17%-11.31%-0.20%168.17%-60.45%14.67%
Dividend Yield--2.66%2.13%3.42%3.06%1.63%2.22%2.30%2.11%1.00%3.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,117.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)217.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)899.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)223.49139.6883.81
Cash Retained (M)899.59899.59899.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-223.49-139.68-83.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)676.10759.91815.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)927.20927.20927.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.820.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$30.32$47.69$88.43
Upside / Downside648.57%1,077.44%2,083.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,117.451,190.081,267.441,349.821,437.561,531.001,576.93
Payout Ratio19.50%33.60%47.70%61.80%75.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)217.86399.83604.54834.171,091.101,377.901,458.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)363.86367.30370.75
Year 2 PV (M)500.65510.18519.81
Year 3 PV (M)628.66646.71665.09
Year 4 PV (M)748.31777.08806.68
Year 5 PV (M)859.98901.52944.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,548.4116,299.4117,079.15
Equity Value (M)18,649.8619,502.2020,386.13
Shares Outstanding (M)927.20927.20927.20
Fair Value$20.11$21.03$21.99
Upside / Downside396.65%419.35%442.88%

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