Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

CTF Services Limited (0659.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.17 - $17.28$14.00
Multi-Stage$26.09 - $28.68$27.36
Blended Fair Value$20.68
Current Price$7.46
Upside177.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.620.590.580.570.570.731.390.490.45
YoY Growth---100.00%4.26%1.64%3.45%0.00%-22.51%-47.44%186.03%7.16%30.24%
Dividend Yield--0.00%8.94%6.69%7.85%6.84%8.45%4.46%10.22%3.16%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,813.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,666.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,146.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)962.62601.64360.98
Cash Retained (M)1,146.501,146.501,146.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-962.62-601.64-360.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)183.88544.86785.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,012.894,012.894,012.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.140.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.140.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.17$14.00$17.28
Upside / Downside49.70%87.70%131.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,813.104,764.974,717.324,670.154,623.444,577.214,714.53
Payout Ratio76.18%78.94%81.71%84.47%87.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,666.603,761.643,854.423,944.964,033.304,119.494,360.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,499.013,534.713,570.42
Year 2 PV (M)3,334.993,403.403,472.50
Year 3 PV (M)3,175.023,273.203,373.40
Year 4 PV (M)3,019.483,144.623,273.62
Year 5 PV (M)2,868.683,018.063,173.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)88,797.0093,420.8798,235.38
Equity Value (M)104,694.18109,794.87115,098.91
Shares Outstanding (M)4,012.894,012.894,012.89
Fair Value$26.09$27.36$28.68
Upside / Downside249.73%266.76%284.48%

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