Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dah Sing Financial Holdings Limited (0440.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.54 - $108.49$92.31
Multi-Stage$124.12 - $136.24$130.06
Blended Fair Value$111.18
Current Price$29.75
Upside273.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.51%7.24%2.551.171.061.001.351.481.488.321.351.33
YoY Growth--118.55%10.17%6.00%-25.93%-8.78%0.11%-82.26%516.28%1.57%4.96%
Dividend Yield--9.07%7.38%5.85%4.23%6.17%4.81%3.81%16.38%2.57%3.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,749.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,306.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,442.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)749.91468.69281.22
Cash Retained (M)2,442.802,442.802,442.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-749.91-468.69-281.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,692.901,974.112,161.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)320.16320.16320.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.296.176.75
LTM Dividend per Share4.084.084.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.296.176.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3710.2510.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-2.46%-1.46%-0.46%
Fair Value$76.54$92.31$108.49
Upside / Downside157.28%210.28%264.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,749.543,694.813,640.883,587.733,535.363,483.763,588.27
Payout Ratio34.85%45.88%56.91%67.94%78.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,306.731,695.192,072.032,437.512,791.883,135.383,319.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-2.46%-1.46%-0.46%
Year 1 PV (M)1,532.691,548.411,564.12
Year 2 PV (M)1,693.831,728.731,764.00
Year 3 PV (M)1,801.581,857.561,914.69
Year 4 PV (M)1,865.691,943.392,023.48
Year 5 PV (M)1,894.391,993.512,096.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,948.5032,567.8134,254.20
Equity Value (M)39,736.6841,639.4143,617.23
Shares Outstanding (M)320.16320.16320.16
Fair Value$124.12$130.06$136.24
Upside / Downside317.20%337.17%357.94%

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