Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Limited (0411.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.06 - $23.50$19.65
Multi-Stage$27.87 - $30.64$29.23
Blended Fair Value$24.44
Current Price$10.10
Upside141.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.330.420.480.460.440.410.360.300.23
YoY Growth---100.00%-23.29%-10.76%3.91%4.47%7.57%14.13%19.66%29.49%9.53%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.62%3.92%4.17%3.05%3.30%2.63%2.44%2.59%2.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)503.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)362.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.7162.9437.77
Cash Retained (M)362.68362.68362.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.71-62.94-37.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)261.96299.73324.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)237.92237.92237.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.101.261.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.101.261.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.691.851.96
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.06$19.65$23.50
Upside / Downside59.01%94.52%132.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)503.55498.52493.53488.60483.71478.87493.24
Payout Ratio27.98%40.38%52.79%65.19%77.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.88201.31260.52318.52375.34430.99456.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)183.95185.82187.70
Year 2 PV (M)217.52221.98226.49
Year 3 PV (M)243.02250.53258.20
Year 4 PV (M)261.67272.52283.69
Year 5 PV (M)274.56288.85303.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,450.885,734.726,030.26
Equity Value (M)6,631.596,954.437,290.09
Shares Outstanding (M)237.92237.92237.92
Fair Value$27.87$29.23$30.64
Upside / Downside175.97%189.41%203.38%

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