Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong Investment Limited (0270.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.53 - $30.28$21.38
Multi-Stage$38.03 - $41.81$39.88
Blended Fair Value$30.63
Current Price$6.56
Upside366.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.91%4.71%0.360.610.610.590.580.550.500.440.340.29
YoY Growth---40.81%0.13%2.99%2.29%6.09%9.60%12.36%29.00%20.19%25.30%
Dividend Yield--5.41%10.56%7.67%6.00%4.16%3.36%3.30%4.26%3.37%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,419.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,382.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,283.81802.38481.43
Cash Retained (M)36.1636.1636.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,283.81-802.38-481.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,247.65-766.22-445.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,537.826,537.826,537.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.19-0.12-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.19-0.12-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$15.53$21.38$30.28
Upside / Downside136.74%225.90%361.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,419.036,488.676,559.076,630.236,702.176,774.886,978.13
Payout Ratio99.44%97.55%95.66%93.77%91.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,382.886,329.666,274.546,217.486,158.446,097.396,454.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.15%5.15%5.15%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)5,960.276,019.826,079.37
Year 2 PV (M)5,563.565,675.295,788.14
Year 3 PV (M)5,191.245,348.405,508.71
Year 4 PV (M)4,841.875,038.305,240.64
Year 5 PV (M)4,514.104,744.174,983.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)222,577.49233,921.35245,723.09
Equity Value (M)248,648.53260,747.33273,323.47
Shares Outstanding (M)6,537.826,537.826,537.82
Fair Value$38.03$39.88$41.81
Upside / Downside479.76%507.97%537.29%

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