Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Limited (0236.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.55 - $2.35$1.93
Multi-Stage$3.17 - $3.49$3.33
Blended Fair Value$2.63
Current Price$0.96
Upside173.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%9.98%0.050.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--399.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-48.23%
Dividend Yield--5.95%1.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.398.375.02
Cash Retained (M)44.5144.5144.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.39-8.37-5.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.1336.1539.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.57373.57373.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.55$1.93$2.35
Upside / Downside61.86%101.09%145.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.9366.2665.6064.9464.2963.6565.56
Payout Ratio33.49%44.79%56.09%67.40%78.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.4229.6836.8043.7750.6057.2860.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)27.4527.7328.01
Year 2 PV (M)31.4732.1232.77
Year 3 PV (M)34.6235.6936.78
Year 4 PV (M)37.0138.5440.12
Year 5 PV (M)38.7540.7742.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,015.561,068.441,123.50
Equity Value (M)1,184.851,243.281,304.05
Shares Outstanding (M)373.57373.57373.57
Fair Value$3.17$3.33$3.49
Upside / Downside230.38%246.68%263.62%

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