Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Dongyue Group Limited (0189.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.78 - $11.18$9.44
Multi-Stage$11.99 - $13.11$12.54
Blended Fair Value$10.99
Current Price$9.56
Upside14.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.08%0.83%0.080.650.340.130.230.510.310.160.000.08
YoY Growth---87.00%91.39%153.89%-42.47%-54.02%62.10%97.57%0.00%-100.00%5.88%
Dividend Yield--1.11%12.75%4.50%1.36%4.52%13.16%8.82%3.49%0.00%5.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,013.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,352.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)661.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)402.79251.74151.04
Cash Retained (M)661.71661.71661.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-402.79-251.74-151.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)258.92409.97510.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,833.291,833.291,833.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.220.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.220.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-1.17%-0.17%0.83%
Fair Value$7.78$9.44$11.18
Upside / Downside-18.60%-1.22%16.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,013.932,010.432,006.942,003.461,999.981,996.512,056.40
Payout Ratio67.14%71.71%76.29%80.86%85.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,352.221,441.781,531.021,619.941,708.561,796.861,902.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-1.17%-0.17%0.83%
Year 1 PV (M)1,297.731,310.861,323.99
Year 2 PV (M)1,240.371,265.601,291.09
Year 3 PV (M)1,181.291,217.521,254.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,121.431,167.521,215.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,061.561,116.361,173.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,083.7416,914.1117,778.43
Equity Value (M)21,986.1322,991.9724,036.40
Shares Outstanding (M)1,833.291,833.291,833.29
Fair Value$11.99$12.54$13.11
Upside / Downside25.45%31.19%37.15%

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