Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Want Want China Holdings Limited (0151.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.68 - $3.88$3.26
Multi-Stage$4.65 - $5.09$4.87
Blended Fair Value$4.06
Current Price$4.57
Upside-11.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820162015
DPS-2.25%-0.30%0.230.150.430.150.300.260.190.120.130.13
YoY Growth--54.48%-64.73%188.40%-49.85%13.25%35.00%59.15%-6.14%3.90%-48.10%
Dividend Yield--5.13%3.51%8.94%2.56%6.51%4.93%3.43%2.08%2.73%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,335.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,766.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,568.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)867.11541.95325.17
Cash Retained (M)1,568.691,568.691,568.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-867.11-541.95-325.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)701.581,026.741,243.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,809.7711,809.7711,809.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Fair Value$2.68$3.26$3.88
Upside / Downside-41.44%-28.67%-15.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,335.574,293.994,252.804,212.024,171.624,131.624,255.56
Payout Ratio63.82%69.05%74.29%79.53%84.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,766.882,965.193,159.453,349.703,536.023,718.453,936.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Year 1 PV (M)2,697.842,725.352,752.87
Year 2 PV (M)2,615.402,669.022,723.19
Year 3 PV (M)2,522.882,600.872,680.45
Year 4 PV (M)2,423.082,523.462,626.93
Year 5 PV (M)2,318.352,439.022,564.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,313.3444,515.7646,808.94
Equity Value (M)54,890.8857,473.4860,157.05
Shares Outstanding (M)11,809.7711,809.7711,809.77
Fair Value$4.65$4.87$5.09
Upside / Downside1.71%6.49%11.46%

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