DDM Analysis: 0144.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$55.50 - $106.55	$75.95
Multi-Stage	$52.32 - $57.21	$54.72
Blended Fair Value	$65.34
Current Price	$14.30
Upside	356.91%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	13.34%	5.66%	0.73	0.30	0.22	0.29	0.18	0.39	0.43	0.85	0.53	0.53
YoY Growth	-	-	145.59%	32.62%	-21.19%	60.92%	-54.73%	-9.05%	-49.25%	60.10%	-0.54%	26.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.29%	2.80%	1.97%	2.01%	1.87%	2.97%	3.05%	4.09%	2.75%	2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14,476.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,313.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10,163.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,895.20	1,809.50	1,085.70
Cash Retained (M)	10,163.00	10,163.00	10,163.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,895.20	-1,809.50	-1,085.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7,267.80	8,353.50	9,077.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,184.99	4,184.99	4,184.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.74	2.00	2.17
LTM Dividend per Share	1.03	1.03	1.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.74	2.00	2.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.77	3.03	3.20
WACC / Discount Rate	9.06%	9.06%	9.06%
Growth Rate	3.88%	4.88%	5.88%
Fair Value	$55.50	$75.95	$106.55
Upside / Downside	288.12%	431.15%	645.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14,476.00	15,182.87	15,924.26	16,701.86	17,517.42	18,372.81	18,923.99
Payout Ratio	29.79%	41.84%	53.88%	65.92%	77.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,313.00	6,351.80	8,579.43	11,009.47	13,656.38	16,535.53	17,504.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.06%	9.06%	9.06%
Growth Rate	3.88%	4.88%	5.88%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,768.47	5,824.00	5,879.53
Year 2 PV (M)	7,075.98	7,212.86	7,351.06
Year 3 PV (M)	8,246.29	8,486.73	8,731.80
Year 4 PV (M)	9,289.48	9,652.36	10,025.78
Year 5 PV (M)	10,214.99	10,716.20	11,236.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)	178,370.31	187,122.34	196,214.59
Equity Value (M)	218,965.51	229,014.50	239,439.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,184.99	4,184.99	4,184.99
Fair Value	$52.32	$54.72	$57.21
Upside / Downside	265.89%	282.68%	300.10%

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Financial Statements

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China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited (0144.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener