DDM Analysis: 0098.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$358.91 - $775.59	$726.84
Multi-Stage	$116.63 - $127.69	$122.06
Blended Fair Value	$424.45
Current Price	$7.40
Upside	5,635.82%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	27.30%	30.93%	0.58	0.34	0.68	0.29	0.25	0.17	0.17	0.00	0.08	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	74.15%	-50.58%	130.86%	15.65%	45.52%	4.23%	0.00%	-100.00%	5.78%	81.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	8.89%	6.01%	8.83%	4.91%	4.14%	2.38%	3.93%	0.00%	2.48%	3.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,640.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	491.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,149.34

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	328.10	205.06	123.04
Cash Retained (M)	1,149.34	1,149.34	1,149.34
(-) Cash Required (M)	-328.10	-205.06	-123.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	821.25	944.28	1,026.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	420.65	420.65	420.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.95	2.24	2.44
LTM Dividend per Share	1.17	1.17	1.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.95	2.24	2.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.12	3.41	3.61
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$358.91	$726.84	$775.59
Upside / Downside	4,750.13%	9,722.18%	10,380.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,640.48	1,747.12	1,860.68	1,981.62	2,110.43	2,247.61	2,315.03
Payout Ratio	29.94%	41.95%	53.96%	65.98%	77.99%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	491.14	732.93	1,004.08	1,307.38	1,645.87	2,022.84	2,141.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	682.27	688.74	695.20
Year 2 PV (M)	870.07	886.64	903.37
Year 3 PV (M)	1,054.58	1,084.85	1,115.70
Year 4 PV (M)	1,235.84	1,283.37	1,332.25
Year 5 PV (M)	1,413.90	1,482.20	1,553.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	43,802.70	45,918.38	48,115.04
Equity Value (M)	49,059.35	51,344.17	53,714.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	420.65	420.65	420.65
Fair Value	$116.63	$122.06	$127.69
Upside / Downside	1,476.05%	1,549.45%	1,625.60%

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Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Limited (0098.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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