Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. (003012.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.84 - $4.28$3.52
Multi-Stage$3.51 - $3.82$3.67
Blended Fair Value$3.59
Current Price$7.18
Upside-49.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS83.02%3.88%0.310.120.220.310.030.010.170.001.360.02
YoY Growth--160.63%-46.95%-27.79%1,081.63%74.06%-91.00%15,859.50%-99.92%7,613.74%-91.58%
Dividend Yield--4.90%1.55%2.54%3.04%0.12%0.09%0.00%0.00%8.34%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)368.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)288.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.7746.1127.66
Cash Retained (M)80.7680.7680.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.77-46.11-27.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.9934.6653.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.801,152.801,152.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate11.06%11.06%11.06%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Fair Value$2.84$3.52$4.28
Upside / Downside-60.44%-50.96%-40.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)368.84379.46390.38401.62413.18425.07437.83
Payout Ratio78.10%80.48%82.86%85.24%87.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)288.08305.40323.48342.35362.03382.57404.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.06%11.06%11.06%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Year 1 PV (M)272.32274.99277.66
Year 2 PV (M)257.19262.27267.39
Year 3 PV (M)242.71249.92257.28
Year 4 PV (M)228.86237.98247.37
Year 5 PV (M)215.64226.43237.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,832.722,974.513,121.91
Equity Value (M)4,049.444,226.104,409.26
Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.801,152.801,152.80
Fair Value$3.51$3.67$3.82
Upside / Downside-51.08%-48.94%-46.73%

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