Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangzhou KDT Machinery Co.,Ltd. (002833.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.59 - $69.57$37.22
Multi-Stage$16.57 - $18.06$17.30
Blended Fair Value$27.26
Current Price$16.67
Upside63.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS55.74%31.66%0.911.000.380.410.200.100.170.050.200.04
YoY Growth---9.53%164.83%-7.50%106.43%100.24%-41.77%243.83%-74.90%457.63%-39.03%
Dividend Yield--4.86%4.99%2.16%2.54%0.67%0.84%1.09%0.29%1.11%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)401.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)299.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.2750.1730.10
Cash Retained (M)102.30102.30102.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.27-50.17-30.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.0352.1372.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)431.19431.19431.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.120.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.59$37.22$69.57
Upside / Downside41.50%123.28%317.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)401.34427.43455.21484.80516.31549.87566.37
Payout Ratio74.51%77.61%80.71%83.80%86.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)299.04331.72367.38406.28448.69494.88523.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)301.94304.81307.67
Year 2 PV (M)304.39310.18316.04
Year 3 PV (M)306.40315.19324.16
Year 4 PV (M)308.00319.85332.03
Year 5 PV (M)309.22324.16339.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,614.515,885.696,167.26
Equity Value (M)7,144.467,459.887,786.81
Shares Outstanding (M)431.19431.19431.19
Fair Value$16.57$17.30$18.06
Upside / Downside-0.60%3.78%8.33%

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