Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Shenzhen Kaizhong Precision Technology Co., Ltd. (002823.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.01 - $88.08$37.55
Multi-Stage$14.26 - $15.56$14.90
Blended Fair Value$26.22
Current Price$16.80
Upside56.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.33%18.08%0.460.030.010.100.060.240.150.130.100.11
YoY Growth--1,366.89%244.43%-90.33%50.00%-73.33%63.04%15.01%33.33%-13.02%24.05%
Dividend Yield--3.19%0.30%0.09%1.00%0.57%2.37%1.13%0.89%0.66%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)233.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)147.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.6529.1617.49
Cash Retained (M)85.2985.2985.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.65-29.16-17.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.6456.1467.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)315.56315.56315.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.590.650.68
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.01$37.55$88.08
Upside / Downside31.00%123.50%424.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)233.24248.40264.55281.74300.06319.56329.15
Payout Ratio63.43%68.75%74.06%79.37%84.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)147.95170.76195.92223.63254.11287.60304.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.33%8.33%8.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)156.15157.63159.11
Year 2 PV (M)163.82166.94170.09
Year 3 PV (M)170.98175.88180.88
Year 4 PV (M)177.65184.48191.51
Year 5 PV (M)183.86192.74201.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,648.613,824.844,007.82
Equity Value (M)4,501.064,702.514,911.36
Shares Outstanding (M)315.56315.56315.56
Fair Value$14.26$14.90$15.56
Upside / Downside-15.10%-11.30%-7.36%

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