Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Xiantan Co., Ltd. (002746.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.42 - $43.86$17.98
Multi-Stage$6.82 - $7.43$7.12
Blended Fair Value$12.55
Current Price$6.09
Upside106.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.49%22.65%0.180.110.120.220.240.200.090.050.020.01
YoY Growth--62.07%-5.89%-45.72%-6.76%20.19%119.39%94.46%105.38%102.65%-53.25%
Dividend Yield--3.06%1.71%1.34%2.30%3.22%1.90%0.82%0.81%0.20%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)287.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)237.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.4635.9121.55
Cash Retained (M)49.7549.7549.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.46-35.91-21.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.7113.8428.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)837.79837.79837.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate8.28%8.28%8.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.42$17.98$43.86
Upside / Downside71.11%195.22%620.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)287.30305.98325.87347.05369.60393.63405.44
Payout Ratio82.68%84.15%85.61%87.07%88.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)237.55257.47278.97302.19327.24354.27375.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.28%8.28%8.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)235.56237.79240.02
Year 2 PV (M)233.50237.95242.44
Year 3 PV (M)231.40238.05244.81
Year 4 PV (M)229.26238.07247.14
Year 5 PV (M)227.07238.03249.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,554.784,774.785,003.19
Equity Value (M)5,711.565,964.676,227.03
Shares Outstanding (M)837.79837.79837.79
Fair Value$6.82$7.12$7.43
Upside / Downside11.94%16.91%22.05%

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