Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ORG Technology Co.,Ltd. (002701.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.14 - $11.10$8.21
Multi-Stage$8.02 - $8.78$8.40
Blended Fair Value$8.30
Current Price$5.41
Upside53.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.04%-3.03%0.120.120.140.040.170.100.280.130.280.23
YoY Growth---0.52%-11.76%261.14%-77.09%67.85%-65.16%114.54%-52.42%21.63%39.37%
Dividend Yield--2.36%2.81%2.65%0.76%3.07%2.44%4.54%2.26%3.37%3.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,105.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)753.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)221.13138.2082.92
Cash Retained (M)351.85351.85351.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-221.13-138.20-82.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.73213.65268.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,557.922,557.922,557.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Fair Value$6.14$8.21$11.10
Upside / Downside13.47%51.73%105.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,105.631,139.251,173.891,209.581,246.361,284.261,322.79
Payout Ratio68.18%72.54%76.91%81.27%85.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)753.78826.42902.79983.031,067.321,155.831,223.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Year 1 PV (M)759.27766.71774.15
Year 2 PV (M)762.03777.04792.19
Year 3 PV (M)762.34784.97808.05
Year 4 PV (M)760.44790.70821.84
Year 5 PV (M)756.59794.39833.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,726.6517,562.4818,431.39
Equity Value (M)20,527.3121,476.2822,461.31
Shares Outstanding (M)2,557.922,557.922,557.92
Fair Value$8.02$8.40$8.78
Upside / Downside48.34%55.19%62.31%

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