Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Vanward New Electric Co., Ltd. (002543.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.95 - $25.81$18.82
Multi-Stage$12.82 - $13.98$13.39
Blended Fair Value$16.11
Current Price$12.11
Upside33.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.17%10.87%0.640.400.330.330.330.330.300.430.440.11
YoY Growth--60.38%21.21%0.00%0.00%-0.23%11.80%-31.51%-2.67%316.67%-53.41%
Dividend Yield--5.59%4.12%3.68%4.63%4.09%4.21%2.50%3.41%3.64%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)682.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)337.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)345.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.5885.3651.22
Cash Retained (M)345.51345.51345.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.58-85.36-51.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)208.93260.15294.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)741.76741.76741.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.350.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.85
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Fair Value$13.95$18.82$25.81
Upside / Downside15.20%55.43%113.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)682.90719.24757.50797.81840.26884.97911.51
Payout Ratio49.41%57.52%65.64%73.76%81.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)337.39413.73497.25588.48688.01796.47843.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)373.13376.71380.29
Year 2 PV (M)404.44412.24420.10
Year 3 PV (M)431.68444.21456.99
Year 4 PV (M)455.16472.87491.08
Year 5 PV (M)475.21498.42522.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,367.377,727.318,101.19
Equity Value (M)9,506.999,931.7610,372.19
Shares Outstanding (M)741.76741.76741.76
Fair Value$12.82$13.39$13.98
Upside / Downside5.84%10.56%15.47%

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