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Definitive Analysis

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SAMICK MUSICAL INSTRUMENT Co., Ltd (002450.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,072.84 - $3,035.76$2,536.89
Multi-Stage$3,965.28 - $4,367.08$4,162.22
Blended Fair Value$3,349.56
Current Price$1,261.00
Upside165.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.61%2.15%53.0453.0454.2954.6854.6854.6855.9951.6251.6351.62
YoY Growth--0.00%-2.31%-0.70%0.00%0.00%-2.34%8.45%-0.01%0.01%20.34%
Dividend Yield--4.70%4.15%4.39%3.06%3.40%4.27%2.84%2.40%2.23%1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,917.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,801.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,115.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,183.432,614.651,568.79
Cash Retained (M)17,115.8017,115.8017,115.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,183.43-2,614.65-1,568.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,932.3614,501.1515,547.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.3876.3876.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share169.32189.85203.55
LTM Dividend per Share49.7749.7749.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share169.32189.85203.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend219.08239.62253.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.61%-1.61%-0.61%
Fair Value$2,072.84$2,536.89$3,035.76
Upside / Downside64.38%101.18%140.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,917.1720,581.2620,250.7419,925.5319,605.5519,290.7019,869.43
Payout Ratio18.17%32.54%46.90%61.27%75.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,801.376,696.899,498.4212,208.2514,828.6017,361.6318,379.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate-2.61%-1.61%-0.61%
Year 1 PV (M)6,155.586,218.796,281.99
Year 2 PV (M)8,024.998,190.638,357.96
Year 3 PV (M)9,480.759,775.7910,076.89
Year 4 PV (M)10,584.8811,026.3411,481.47
Year 5 PV (M)11,391.2911,988.2212,609.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)257,231.96270,711.67284,750.64
Equity Value (M)302,869.44317,911.43333,558.88
Shares Outstanding (M)76.3876.3876.38
Fair Value$3,965.28$4,162.22$4,367.08
Upside / Downside214.46%230.07%246.32%

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