Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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S.F. Holding Co., Ltd. (002352.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.64 - $436.68$172.03
Multi-Stage$48.93 - $53.41$51.13
Blended Fair Value$111.58
Current Price$40.33
Upside176.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.85%80.49%2.310.730.180.300.240.360.310.170.370.45
YoY Growth--214.38%315.44%-41.70%26.23%-33.66%17.46%80.00%-53.18%-18.17%7,003.81%
Dividend Yield--5.35%2.01%0.32%0.66%0.30%0.77%0.83%0.34%0.66%3.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,861.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,179.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,682.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,172.311,357.70814.62
Cash Retained (M)2,682.032,682.032,682.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,172.31-1,357.70-814.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)509.721,324.331,867.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,946.604,946.604,946.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.270.38
LTM Dividend per Share1.651.651.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.270.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.761.922.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.64$172.03$436.68
Upside / Downside109.88%326.54%982.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,861.5611,567.5612,319.4613,120.2213,973.0414,881.2815,327.72
Payout Ratio75.31%78.25%81.18%84.12%87.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,179.549,051.1310,001.4611,037.1112,165.1213,393.1514,178.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.69%7.69%7.69%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,325.928,404.848,483.76
Year 2 PV (M)8,462.978,624.178,786.88
Year 3 PV (M)8,591.018,837.629,088.92
Year 4 PV (M)8,710.349,045.329,389.86
Year 5 PV (M)8,821.279,247.349,689.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)199,133.52208,751.74218,738.07
Equity Value (M)242,045.02252,911.02264,177.21
Shares Outstanding (M)4,946.604,946.604,946.60
Fair Value$48.93$51.13$53.41
Upside / Downside21.33%26.77%32.42%

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